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Greatturn growth rate

Anything about Greatturn in general, not related to a specific match.

Greatturn growth rate

Postby Davide » Thu Jan 17, 2013 8:17 pm

Greatturn needs to grow.
A bigger GT means more matches, more players, more people dedicated at expanding/customizing new rulesets. It also means more thinkers proposing valuable ideas, and more developers.

The top factors which determined the growth of GT up to this point are (in order of efficacy)
  • Users' word of mouth (posts on forums, blogs, etc)
  • Initial announces that the project was complete and ready to use
  • Propaganda messages on gaming servers listed in meta
  • My direct communication to users
  • Social networks share buttons on GT homepage (Facebook, Twitter, Google+)

At this point the growth of GT relies almost exclusively upon these mediums.
The growth rate is falling down to a level of stabilization. Less and less new users will join GT over time by this step. I don't have digitized charts to show.

Suggestions would be really appreciated.
Last edited by Davide on Wed Jan 23, 2013 3:19 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Greatturn growth rate

Postby monamipierrot » Tue Jan 22, 2013 12:06 am

Davide,
you did a great job. There have been a peak because the word spread over the Longturn community. The growth may be slower now, but you can say GT has born when the 1st game will be ended with success. Please don't get discouraged, I really can't see the point: I bet that in 6 months GreatTurn will almost take LongTurn over. I think Akfaew and Marduk has been great, but it seems that your effort, competence, time and enthusiasm cannot be equaled.
I would STRONGLY encourage you in taking at least the leadership starting games with your taste (and play them), and to have someone else do the same. I would love to be a game master too but I simply lack the minimum technical skills.
After hailing to your GREAT work, I want to advance just two more proposals with GreatTurn:
1. There should be some pre-designed rulesets/flavours of GreatTurn (ex. Island game, continent game, fast games etc.), on which everybody could vote some limited mods.
2. You should change its name! I find "GreatTurn" ugly! Sorry!

Again, thanks, and go ahead!!!

Piero
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Re: Greatturn growth rate

Postby Davide » Tue Jan 28, 2014 3:45 am

I'm picking up this old thread to publish the yearly statistic tracking the growth of Greatturn from March 2013 to January 2014. I thought this might be of interest to some users.

GT_growth-2013.jpg
Growth of Greatturn, from March 2013 to January 2014.

Horizontal axis: days passed since (approx) March 1st;
Vertical axis: new users registered per day.
Note: the "double 0" delusion is a bug of jqPlot, however it doesn't compromise linearity.
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Re: Greatturn growth rate

Postby Major Nimrod » Tue Jan 28, 2014 3:48 pm

Interesting. Question: How many more registered users do we have, in total, since March of 2013 ?
"Big Brother is watching you" - George Orwell
"Shh! I'm Hunting Wabbits" - Elmer Fudd
"What a Nimrod" - Bugs Bunny

NIMMY
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Re: Greatturn growth rate

Postby monamipierrot » Tue Jan 28, 2014 4:03 pm

Daily is hard to read. Can you produce a weekly or monthly graph?
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Re: Greatturn growth rate

Postby Davide » Tue Jan 28, 2014 7:24 pm

The chart expressively pictures a well-defined trend: an atypical constant growth over time, completely linear across nearly the whole lifespan of GT.

The typical grow trend you would expect to see from any project which involves participation from the public is an exponential curve. This is caused by a healthy "positive-feedback" growth model, which in short is: the bigger the userbase, the faster the growth. In this model, members of the community contribute themselves to the growth of the userbase, which in turn gets bigger and hence more capable to grow faster. The phenomena behind this are: word-of-mouth divulgation; propagation thru social networks; a more active (wider) community being more attractive to newcomers.

Instead, GT's growth rate is static; GT is not governed by an exponential growth model, meaning that GT is not being grown by the community itself. Rather, the static growth rate is due to the constant influx of newcomers coming here from a fixed assortment of web links scattered across the web. GT's web traffic analytics (not published here) show that all of the incoming links which are being actively followed by users have been created by GT itself (me), and not by the community. We have, had, and always have had a rate of 0.9 new users per day. The marginal boost you may notice from the chart, spanning the last two weeks, is the direct effect of me spreading more web links during that time.

If I had to make a speculation, I would argue that Longturn has for long been doomed by the same growth model incapable to grow, accompanied by an augmenting lack of interest from its administrator.

I'm not trying to jerk tears off your eyes; take this post just as a dump-off-mind weblog of mine. Rather, it'd be interesting to discuss how you see the problem and what solutions we can reason out.
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Re: Greatturn growth rate

Postby XYZ » Tue Jan 28, 2014 8:41 pm

Interesting what you said but it doesn't surprise me that much. I think freeciv had always the problem that it had never 24/7 players playing the game -not in 2003/04 when I firt played it nor today- making it hence in many ways frustrating for people to play the game. And greatturn depends much on the regular freeciv as spring board. Freeciv on the other hand is being played by a great part by people who played the good old civ meiers game of the 90's but this time online. I don't know if future generation feel that much attracted not having the sentiment of nostalgia and therefore we have a smaller growth rate.
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Re: Greatturn growth rate

Postby morphles » Tue Jan 28, 2014 9:28 pm

Well yeah growth seems slowish, and I can't spred the word using social networks, since I don't use any :) still brought one
friend, hope he will stay with comunity, have some more on the list. Als, I'll just go post GT promotion on one site, which
I think could have some people that might be interested in this sort of thing. (it's littlegolem.net if you'r interested,
"turn based" board game comunity, turn based as in asynchronious, you get 10 days for a move, every move adds 24 hrs to
your timer up to the max of 10 days, all of this arraingment seems in line with great turn: games for working people with no
need to rush or grind endlessly)
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Re: Greatturn growth rate

Postby morphles » Tue Jan 28, 2014 9:50 pm

And so lets wait for a spike of new users:)
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Re: Greatturn growth rate

Postby Davide » Thu Jan 30, 2014 8:55 pm

morphles wrote:And so lets wait for a spike of new users:)

Those guys are filled of enthusiasm :D

Lately I added some widgets to GT's homepage in an attempt to increase users' involvement toward the growth.
Not sure though.. the chart doesn't look sunshine for sure, however I wonder if it might be somewhat addictive to incentivize people to spread the word and watch their progress plotted on chart :P

Chart.jpg
Userbase growth stats

Tooltip.jpg
"Shareme!!!" tooltip – currently only shown to guest users
Tooltip.jpg (19.52 KiB) Viewed 5707 times
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